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Small Forward:
For much of the year, Stacey Augmon started at small forward, but no more. Each game of the playoffs, Rasheed Wallace has started even though he is really a power forward. Although the Blazers like to use Wallace to guard Tim Duncan (since Wallace does as good of a job as anyone can hope for on Tim), the Blazers must use Wallace on Sean Elliot while the starting line up are in since Elliot is too fast for either of their other starting frontcourt players, Arvydas Sabonis and Brian Grant.
Since the 6-10 Wallace is really a power forward, you would expect that he would post Sean Elliot up. Well, he might, but don’t fear. In the last series, Wallace had every opportunity to post up Utah’s 6-7 small forward Bryon Russell. Usually, the play would result in Wallace taking a fade away instead of powering it inside. Sometimes he hits it, more times he does not. It is not a high percentage shot and the Spurs can live with him taking it. Also, Sean Elliot will provide a slightly bigger and stronger body than Russell’s for Wallace to post up against.
The key for Sean Elliot is too get back on defense (which Sean does), give Rasheed all the open three-pointers he wants (Wallace is 1-6 in the playoffs from three), foul him instead of giving up a lay-up (Wallace is shooting 67% free throws) and contest any open midrange shots.
Meanwhile on the other end of the court, Sean Elliot has a quickness advantage over Rasheed and should be able to drive on him. There may not be a lot of room in the lane with all the big trees, but Sean must force the drive to put the pressure on their defense and to possible pick up some cheap fouls on Rasheed. Also, Sean is shooting an excellent 44% from three-point range. Wallace must stay on Sean or Sean will bury the open jumpshot.
While Sean Elliot and Rasheed Wallace are matched up against each other, the match up should play out even. Sean will give Wallace what Rasheed gives him at the other end. However, as I said before, the Blazers like to use Wallace on Duncan. So any time Wallace is elsewhere, Sean will be matched up with either Stacey Augmon or Walt Williams. Neither of the two are delivering the punch in the playoffs that they gave in the regular season. Anytime Sean is matched up against either Stacey or Walt, the advantage will be Sean’s.
Overall, slight advantage Spurs.
Power Forward:
With Brian Grant vs Tim Duncan, we will see why Tim Duncan should be the MVP instead of Karl Malone. No player has stepped up his game more in the playoffs than Tim Duncan and Grant gets to see it firsthand. Unlike Malone, Duncan will not settle for all those fade-aways. The 7-foot Tim Duncan works hard in the post and will shoot over the 6-9 Grant. Duncan also has quickness over Grant and will get to the basket for dunks, get fouled in the process or both. Duncan has size, quickness and skill advantage over Grant which is why the Blazers must use Wallace on Tim. Duncan is still score on Wallace, who is bigger and quicker than Grant, but Rasheed will make it a little tougher to do.
At the other end, Wallace can’t post on Duncan. If he does, it most likely will result in a block or an ill-advised shot. Brian Grant is much tougher in the post, though, because he works so hard. The key for Duncan is to stay home on Grant. As long as Tim stays in front of him, he should be able to contain him. Grant can’t shot over Duncan nor get around him if Duncan stays at home. Likely, Duncan will get the block or force Grant to pass out of the post. In the playoffs, Grant actually has more turnovers than assists.
Overall, big advantage Spurs
Center:
It is time for David Robinson to step up and take advantage of Arvydas Sabonis, one of the slowest players in the league. I think Dave will because, unlike against Shaq O’Neal (the NBA’s golden boy), Dave won’t be clamped by cheap fouls being called on him. Because of the quickness advantage, Sabonis must give Robinson a lot of room on the outside. Dave can get his fifteen-foot jump any time he wants. If he is hitting it the game is already over and the Spurs win in a blowout. Dave, however, is not always hitting that shot. Regardless, Robinson should be able to drive on Sabonis EVERY time. It is a good thing that Portland is deep, because Sabonis will get into foul trouble quickly. When Grant is switched over onto Robinson, Dave still has a quickness advantage and should take it to the hole.
When Dave is on defense, Robinson can give Sabonis all the jumpshots he wants. Arvydas has been very inconsistent from outside. Dave’s quickness will help him really bother Sabonis when Arvydas sets up on offense. As long as Dave does not let Sabonis step up too deep, Dave will be fine. The same goes from Grant when Grant is matched up against Dave.
Overall, advantage Spurs
Shooting Guard:
Up until this point, things seem really rosy. But not anymore when you bring Isaiah Rider into the mix. Rider is so tough posting up guards that he can really change the game. Unlike Jeff Hornacek, Mario Elie will offer a bigger challenge to post up. Because not only is Elie bigger than Jeff, he is also much stronger. Still, Rider will get his points. The Spurs probably have to send the big guys to help Elie out. If that is what it takes to force either a more difficult shot or a pass out of the post, the Spurs will be better off. If he passes out of the post, the Spurs’ big guys are quick enough to get back to their man on defense. Also, Rider has more turnovers than assists.
Meanwhile, Elie just has to hit the open jumpshot any time he gets it and drive to the hoop to keep so pressure on Rider
Overall advantage Blazers
Point Guard:
A couple of years ago, Damon Stoudamire said the Spurs will never win it all with Avery Johnson at the point guard. It is time to prove Damon wrong. If nothing else, Avery already has proved he is at least a better player than Damon. Head to head in the four games this season. Damon has shot 35% while scoring a total of 41 points and getting 19 assists. Avery, on the other had, shot 53% and scored 62 points with 30 assists. Whether the Spurs will win it all with Avery is let to be seen, but at least Avery has outplayed Damon.
Another difference between the two, is that Damon has not stepped up his game in the playoffs. Damon is still getting near the same numbers as he got in the regular season: about 10 ppg (actually this is down from 13 ppg) and 6 apg while still shooing a lousy 40% from the field. Meanwhile, Avery has really stepped up his game in the playoffs. Avery’s field goal percentage is up from 44% to 53%. His scoring has increased from 10 ppg to 15 ppg while still getting 7.5 assist per game.
The key for Avery Johnson is just to continue to play his game and hit the open jumpshot as he has been doing the entire playoffs.
Overall advantage Spurs.
The Bench:
So much is made about the depth of Portland. However, only player off the bench for the Blazers comes in and changes the game: Greg Anthony. He may not really score any points, but he puts a lot of defensive pressure on the opposing point guard. So much so, that the Spurs may be reluctant to play Antonio Daniels off the bench when Anthony is in. Anthony can really change the flow of the game, but Avery should be able to handle the pressure. Also, to give Avery a break, the Spurs can use the shooting guard to bring up the ball.
The Blazers also bring Jim Jackson off the bench, but he really does not change anything the Spurs will do. Jim plays basically the same game as Rider and the Spurs will defend him the same way.
The other Blazers, Augmon, Walt Williams, Kelvin Cato and Jermaine O’Neal, have really not stepped up in the playoffs. In fact, all their numbers are down across the board. So much for the depth of Portland.
The Spurs’ bench, however, has been fantastic. Each game, someone on the benched stepped up their play and made a difference. Sometimes it is Jaren Jackson, sometimes it is Malik Rose or it’s Will Perdue or Jerome Kersey. The Spurs’ bench has really stepped it up. Also, the their bench is much more experienced and battle-tested.
Overall advantage Spurs
The Series:
The Spurs should win based on experience, team defense and overall teamwork. The Spurs have an advantage in almost all spots except shooting guard, but they should be able to make up for that. Don’t get me wrong, the Blazers are tough and this will be the Spurs’ toughest series yet. If the Spurs hold homecourt and win games 1 and 2 (which I think they will), Spurs will win in five---a very tough five, but in five. Because unlike Utah, the Spurs will be able to make defensive stops at the end of game. The Spurs will simply just find a way to win.
By Spurn
