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In the end, the Spurs will win based on two factors which still escape the Lakers: team-play and defense. The Lakers in the Houston series clearly showed they still lack both. In each of their wins against Houston, the Rockets were down early; but every time, the Lakers let them back into the game. The reason was because the Lakers do not posess the defense to prevent this. It is only because the Rockets rely on tired legs and rookie shooters that they were not able to capitalize on LA's failings. The Spurs, however, do not falter so easily and would complete the comeback.
Also, in the final game of the series, Kobe Bryant reverted to single-play. He shot most every time he got the ball whether it was a good shot or not. Some of the shots went in but most did not. He finished 9 of 25 from the field, a couple of which where airballs. His performance was very similar to the final game of the Utah series last year when he airballed three bad shots in the fourth quarter when the game was still on the line. What this says is that in important games, Kobe thinks he can do it all and starts cranking up the jumpers to prove it. So much for team-play. When the Spurs get the Lakers down in the up-coming series, not only will Kobe revert to single play, but I suspect the other Lakers will as well. By the way, just like in Kobe's Addias commercial, every time Kobe passes the ball, he expects the ball to be passed right back to him. Watch for it in the commercial and in the game.
The game plan against the Lakers-
On Shaq- Shaq O'Neal will be defended by David Robinson with single coverage. So many teams double Shaq, that the Lakers rely on it to set up much of their offense. By single coverage on Shaq, the Spurs will already have a disruption in LA's offense. Now with single coverage (and more importantly, with the offensive fouls the NBA lets Shaq get away with), Shaq may score 35 points, but not much more. It is amazing how someone can't be in shape enough to play basketball for 48 minutes when it is all that they are paid to do, but Shaq is not in shape. If you look at most of the games in which Shaq has 20 points by halftime, he only scores about 10 the rest of the game. This is just because he is not in shape. By the fourth quarter, most of Shaq's hookshots just hit the front of the rim. Maybe it is just because he is a big engine, but Shaq has no gas for the end of the game.
To confound Shaq's fatigue level, David Robinson, who has appeared to regain his step in the Minnesota series, will streak down the court every time. It is hard enough to get Shaq past halfcourt on defense, let alone run the entire length of the floor. After Dave has made a couple of easy lay-ups, Shaq will have to make it down each play to prevent it. Making Shaq run will take even more off his game.
When the Spurs don't have the opportunity to run, David Robinson will face-up Shaq at about the free-throw line. If Dave is hitting his jumper like in our final regular season game against the Lakers, the game is already over. Dave to too quick of foot for Shaq that Shaq refuses to go out their to guard him. Unfortunately, Dave is not always on. But from the position, Robinson can still drive to the hoop on Shaq. Dave might get him in foul trouble or just tire him out even more. Either way, it is another advantage for us.
When Robinson is not in the game, the Spurs will use Malik Rose on Shaq. Just like Charles Barkley who effectively kept Shaq from the basket, Malik is strong and has that low center of gravity. In our final regular season match up, Malik was able to push Shaq out a little further from the basket then Shaq likes. Also because of his speed, Malik was able to steal a couple of passes into the post, something that frustrated Shaquille. Malik is also able to sprint the floor to keep Shaq working and has a little jumpshot on him as well.
The Spurs will also use the Hack-a-Shaq defense as well. This is where Will Perdue, Gerald King and, to a small extent, Jerome Kersey, come. Big Will can lay some serious wood on Shaq. King made the playoff roster over Andrew Gaze just because he is a big body for situations like this. The more hits he takes, the more Shaq slows. It might not be pretty, but this is the playoffs. Kersey will be used for the same reasons as Malik Rose but Kersey has more range.
The keys to defense on Shaq are to make him run, make him work, make him tired and make him hit his free throws in the fourth. Plus, even if he gets a lot of shots with single coverage, it will take the rest of the team out of the game. When guys like Kobe and Glen Rice don't get their shots, they fume, they disband and they just start throwing up shots.
On Kobe-
Kobe does not know a bad shot from a good shot. It is up to the Spurs to limit the number of good shots he gets and give him all the bad shots he wants. Even though Kobe is their shooting guard, the Spurs will primarily use small forward Sean Elliott on him. Elliott is bigger and stronger but also a good defender who can keep up with Kobe. Because of his size, Elliott will make the post game, a spot where Bryant usually has an advantage, very difficult. On the perimeter, Elliott will be able to play Bryant close because he has David and Tim Duncan to back him up. Kobe will be forced into taking a lot of fade-aways and long jumpers and be met with Robinson and Duncan anytime he drives.
On the other end, Sean Elliott will post-up Kobe thanks to the work he did at bigman's camp over the summer. Again because of his size and strength advantage on Kobe, Sean will score on him. As with Dave versus Shaq, Sean may get him into foul trouble or just get him a little more tired.
Taking a look at the composite of the three games against LA where Sean primarily guarded Kobe, Bryant scored 51 points on 52 shots. On the other hand, Sean scored 45 points on only 34 shots. So Elliot had almost as many point as Kobe on such fewer shots. Don't believe the hype, Sean can play Kobe to a draw which is an advantage for us.
So the keys to Kobe are to make him shoot bad shots which he won't pass up. Kobe and Shaq already don't get along; so the more Kobe cranks up, the more it pisses of Shaq.
On Rice-
First, we have to assume he is healthy. If he is, Mario Elie will face-guard him. Rice is more than just a jumpshooter, but not when Shaq, David and Duncan are clogging up the lane. Mario is quick enough to stick Rice up close, and if he does get by Elie, Dave and Tim are back their to erase mistakes with shot-blocks. So any time Rice shots, Elie will have a hand in Glenn's face.
On the other end, Rice still has no idea what defense is. Look for Elie to get easy drives into the lane.
On Jones-
Wait a minute, there is no Eddie Jones. The first time I heard of the possible Jones for Rice trade, was ecstatic. The Spurs could contend with the quickness of one of either Jones or Bryant, but not both. Also, Eddie is a great defender and they replaced him with someone that does not know what defense is. To top it off, the Lakers also included Elden Campbell in the deal. Elden was also a good defender who played well against Tim/Dave. Way to go, LA.
The rest of the game plan is easy. The Lakers have absolutely no one that can guard Tim Duncan. He will have a field day. Avery Johnson can blow by the slower Derek Fisher and will continue his good play in the playoffs. At the other end, LA has no consistent threat at power forward and Fisher can only do something only sometimes, and that is only when he is left wide open. Avery will not leave him.
If the Spurs can hold homecourt in the first two games, the Spurs will win in 5 games. If not, the Spurs will win in 6.
By Spurn
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